ablet sales showed their first sequential decline ever in the second quarter of this year, according to research firm IDC. Apple sold fewer iPads than expected in its most recent quarter. Barnes & Noble’s Nook e-reader sales fell 20% in the fiscal first quarter ended August 20, two months after the company announced it will no longer make color versions of Nook, only black and white ones. And analysts are worrying about whether smartphone profit margins can hold up as buyer fatigue sets in. All of this points to what is becoming the new normal for tech gadgets: a rapidly accelerating product cycle. Devices hit the market, wow the crowd, mature and sunset at an ever increasing rate. For instance, the netbook, a light, stripped-down laptop, was created in 2007, shortly peaked and then plummeted as consumers bought tablets. Research firm IHS iSuppli predicts that by 2015, netbooks will be extinct after hitting a peak of 32.14 million units in 2010. IDC said that worldwide tablet shipments were 45.1 million units, down 9.7% in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. Second quarter shipments were up 59.6% from a year ago, but the research firm noted in a press release that the lack of a new iPad from Apple hurt the market. “With no new iPads, the market slowed for many vendors, and that’s likely to continue into the third quarter,” said IDC analyst Tom Mainelli. “However, by the fourth quarter we expect new products from Apple, Amazon and others to drive impressive growth in the market.” On August 29, IDC cut its 2013 forecast slightly from 229.3 million to 227.4 million tablet shipments. In other words, the tablet market now is experiencing similar dynamics to the PC industry, where much of the growth falls in the second half of the year. Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes wrote in a research note that sales of the iPad “clearly have the flu.” Apple shipped 14.6 million iPads in the fiscal third quarter, well below the 18 million he expected. “The market has really suffered from a lack of new and compelling devices.” According to Citi Research analyst Glen Yeung, the desktop PC market took 12 years to mature and hit saturation in developed markets in 2008. The laptop market took 10 years to mature in 2012. 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Research firm Gartner said that global mobile phone sales grew 3.6% in the second quarter, and smartphone units surpassed so-called feature phones for the first time. Nevertheless, analysts covering Samsung and Apple question whether the two mobile market leaders can maintain profit margins and have expressed doubt that they will be able to launch new devices that are enticing enough to offset buyer fatigue. Sales of Samsung’s Galaxy S4 phone didn’t live up to initial expectations. Meanwhile, Apple on Tuesday introduced the latest upgrade to the iPhone, the 5S, along with a new lower-cost model, the 5C. With its $99 price tag for a 16GB model, Apple is hoping the 5C — which is made of plastic and comes in five colors– will put the phone within reach of consumers in fast-growing emerging markets. The 5S, meanwhile, includes an upgrade to an A7 chip and is the first smartphone based on a high-performance 64-bit architecture. It also comes in three colors — silver, gold and “space gray.” Wharton management professor David Hsu agrees. “The underlying question is: What functionality is unique and can push consumers to upgrade? Upgrading just for incremental improvement isn’t as compelling.” Werbach points out that although smartphones and tablets have been refined in recent years, they have fallen short of any breakthrough uses. “The first few years of smartphones and tablets were about software innovation, and then the development of cloud-based systems tied to the devices,” he notes. “There has been significant refinement since then, but today’s devices basically have the same functionality that Apple first delivered when it added the App Store to the second-generation iPhone.” According to Knowledge@Wharton technology and media editor Kendall Whitehouse, screen size might be the most critical differentiator for consumers. “The middle ground [in screen sizes] is where the market challenges will be.” The smartphone is highly portable and will continue to do well, Whitehouse predicts. Tablets will increase in functionality to become lightweight PCs. Standalone, limited function tablets are the most vulnerable. “The extremes at either end have a niche. At home I want the biggest screen I can get. When I’m on the go, I want something portable. 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Apple’s iPhone 5C will be on sale starting Friday, and the 5S model is available for pre-order starting September 20. An Apple television set also has been long rumored. “Apple has created so many product waves, one has to wonder whether it can continue to do so,” says Whitehouse. Barclays’ Reitzes argued in a research note that Apple should concentrate its iPad sales efforts on corporations to hold market share against Samsung and a bevy of inexpensive Android tablets. According to Reitzes, Apple’s tablet already has traction in corporations, and if it could develop more business use, the company would have a more stable base for its device. Meanwhile, Apple’s rival, Samsung, has its own concerns. Competition from Chinese smartphone makers ZTE, Huawei and Lenovo are cutting into the firm’s profits. “Samsung and Apple both have to worry about the ‘Dell problem,’” says Hsu. Dell pioneered an efficient PC supply chain and the ability to quickly customize computers, but it missed the mobile trend and hasn’t been a player in smartphones or tablets. “Both [Apple and Samsung] have been doing great many quarters in a row, [but they are] focusing on giving people what they want now, not what they want in the future.” Neither Samsung nor Apple can look to recent history from PC companies for much insight on how to navigate faster product cycles. Few traditional PC players have been able to handle the rapid pace of the mobile product cycle. Microsoft is currently looking for a new CEO, as Steve Ballmer plans to retire within the next year after a not-always-successful attempt to focus the company on cloud services and devices like the Surface tablet. Microsoft’s mobile platforms are a distant third to Android and Apple’s iOS. PC vendors in general have struggled in the so-called “post-PC era” — Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Acer and Asus have all failed to hit home runs with mobile devices.



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